Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
